Fallout from President Donald Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey has led to an uptick in the betting odds that the president won’t complete his term.
Gambling on Trump’s impeachment and removal — without precedent in American history — has been big business for betting and prediction markets since right after the inauguration.
On the website PredictIt, traders set the Trump’s chances of still serving as president at the end of 2017 at 83 percent, as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s down from 87 percent at the close of trading Tuesday — though the price has stabilized from the low-water mark of 79 percent following the Comey news.
Across the pond, where bettors have been more bullish on Trump’s potential removal, the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power told POLITICO on Wednesday that its Trump impeachment odds had shortened, from 10/11 (52 percent) to 4/6 (60 percent).
“Paddy Power customers have been lumping on Trump to come undone, with thousands staked on him not completing his first term in office and to be impeached,” said Lewis Davey, a Paddy Power spokesman.
That’s despite GOP control of both congressional chambers — and the fact that few Democrats are openly talking about impeaching Trump, even after the Comey firing.
The odds on Bovada, another offshore gambling site with a bigger U.S. footprint, are more pessimistic about Trump’s removal. Trump is considered marginally more likely than not to serve a full term as president; bettors have to wager $130 to win $100 that Trump will make it to January 20, 2021.
And if bettors think Trump will leave office during 2017, they can make a small fortune with Bovada. As of Wednesday afternoon, the site was paying $350 on a $100 bet that Trump would be out of the White House before year’s end.